Confidence, Currency and Silence: Can Trinidad’s Market Arrest Its Structural Slide? -

And what the region — especially Jamaica — should be watching closely

By any serious capital markets standard, the decline of the Trinidad and Tobago equity market is no longer cyclical weakness.

It is structural stress.

Since 2022, the Composite and All T&T indices of the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange have fallen each year, shedding close to 40 per cent cumulatively. Four consecutive annual declines in a small, concentrated market are not mere volatility. They represent a breakdown in confidence formation.

Former TTSE chairman Richard Young is correct in one respect: markets do not recover by accident. They recover when institutions act with clarity and credibility.

But this is not solely an exchange problem. Nor is it purely a listed-company problem. It is an ecosystem problem — spanning regulators, advisors, institutional investors, currency policy, and retail trust.

The Structural Forces at Work

Small island exchanges face five persistent headwinds:

Capital Mobility
As regulatory regimes liberalise, investors gain easier access to U.S. and global markets. When domestic returns stagnate, capital leaves.
Currency Credibility
Persistent uncertainty around the TTD has altered portfolio behaviour. Investors are not merely pessimistic — they are hedging.
Liquidity Concentration
A handful of institutional investors dominate turnover. When they reach internal risk limits, bid-side depth evaporates.
Information Asymmetry
Limited research coverage and inconsistent disclosure amplify perceived governance risk.
Scale Constraints
Small markets struggle to attract new listings and sector diversity.

These dynamics are not unique to Trinidad. They have challenged exchanges across the Caribbean, from Barbados to the Eastern Caribbean.

What makes Trinidad’s case striking is the duration and breadth of the decline.

Assessing Richard Young’s Intervention

Young’s argument that silence is unacceptable carries weight. Exchanges cannot operate as passive utilities. Investor education, retail engagement, and modern communication are no longer peripheral activities — they are central to market survival.

However, investor literacy campaigns alone cannot reverse price declines if macro and currency uncertainty persist.

Education builds participation.
It does not override capital flight.

His sharper point — that boards and CEOs must accept responsibility for investor confidence — may be more consequential. Share price performance cannot be dismissed indefinitely as “market noise.” In small exchanges, persistent discounting becomes self-fulfilling.

Paul Traboulay’s Broader Institutional Diagnosis

Paul Traboulay chief executive of the Joint Secretariat Corporation and the Association of T&T Insurance Companies (ATTIC), frames the issue as multi-layered: macro uncertainty, capital mobility, risk appetite limits, regulatory friction, and confidence erosion.

He is correct to highlight anchor investors nearing internal limits. In small markets, when pension funds and insurers are fully allocated, marginal demand disappears.

He also underscores a critical vulnerability: cross-listings between Jamaica and Trinidad enabling arbitrage and FX positioning. When domestic markets become vehicles for currency extraction rather than equity appreciation, price discovery distorts.

Traboulay’s call for consistent, comparable performance disclosures from regulators is notable. Transparency reduces information asymmetry — a persistent drag on emerging markets.

The Missing Actor: Advisors and Dealer-Brokers

Daniel Tittil’s intervention may be the most underappreciated.

Writing in a linkendIn post in response to the Richard Young remarks, noted that registered investment advisors and dealer-brokers are the transmission mechanism between markets and capital allocation. If advisors default to defensive positioning — whether from caution or fear of issuer backlash — liquidity suffers.

His observation that “too many times advisors fear repercussions from issuers” speaks to a deeper governance concern: cultural discomfort with independent research.

Healthy markets require:

Critical analysis
Divergent views
Sell recommendations
Public scrutiny

If research becomes promotional rather than analytical, confidence erodes quietly.

Role separation is essential. Exchanges facilitate structure. Issuers disclose. Advisors interpret and allocate. Blurring these roles weakens trust.

Retail Investors: The Quiet Casualties

Four years of index decline reshape retail psychology.

Dividend yields may cushion total returns, as Tittil notes, but capital erosion dominates headlines. Retail investors observing offshore platforms delivering higher liquidity and currency stability will rationally reallocate.

Without renewed domestic participation, market depth contracts further — reinforcing illiquidity discounts.

This spiral is difficult to arrest once embedded.

Regional Implications

The Trinidad experience reverberates across CARICOM markets.

In Jamaica, under the long stewardship of Marlene Street Forrest, the Jamaica Stock Exchange pursued:

Aggressive listings expansion
Junior market innovation
Retail investor engagement
Regional integration
Technology upgrades

Jamaica’s experience demonstrates that scale, narrative momentum, and consistent communication can offset small-market disadvantages.

But Jamaica is not immune. If regional investors increasingly prioritise offshore markets and USD exposure, even stronger exchanges face valuation compression.

The lesson is preventative: confidence must be maintained before erosion compounds.

The Power of Plain Communication

Young’s insistence that companies communicate “consistently, honestly, and plainly” is not rhetorical flourish.

In small markets, opacity magnifies discount rates.

Investors require clarity on:

Strategy under currency pressure
Capital allocation discipline
Dividend sustainability
Exposure to foreign earnings
Risk management frameworks

This does not require disclosure of trade secrets. It requires conviction and coherence.

Markets penalise silence more harshly in illiquid environments.

What Must Happen Next

For the TTSE:

Elevate continuous investor education beyond episodic conferences.
Facilitate independent research coverage.
Explore incentives for new listings and sector diversification.

For regulators:

Accelerate merger and transaction approvals to avoid stagnation narratives.
Publish standardised performance dashboards.

For advisors:

Reclaim analytical independence.
Encourage disciplined value identification rather than defensive inertia.

For listed companies:

Embrace proactive disclosure.
Address capital allocation openly.
Accept that market valuation is not an externality.

Fighting the Bigger Trend

Small exchanges globally face consolidation pressure. Some merge. Others shrink. A few reinvent.

The trend Trinidad is fighting is not temporary pessimism. It is capital mobility in a digitised financial world where geographic advantage no longer guarantees liquidity.

The test is whether domestic markets can offer: