In the final installment of our David vs. Goliath series, Denzil Wilks, a veteran sports administrator and former president of the Sports Development Foundation, relies on gut instincts, logic, and his vast knowledge and experience in track and field to make predictions as to Jamaica’s performance at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympic Games happening now.
Track and Field has its own idiosyncrasies, and each season brings its own peculiarities. For example, Shericka Jackson was “shelling down” the place in 2023 across the Diamond League circuit, and there was little doubt that she was in top form. In general, this has not been the case in 2024, certainly not for Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce and Shericka, both of whom did not begin competing until well into the track and field season.
Even the Americans, for example, Sha’Carri Richardson, hit the circuit relatively late. This makes it even more challenging for those who try to predict winners and medalists in these global championships. This can be hard enough even in the most typical conditions, but the mystery of prophesying will always attract the aficionados and followers.
I have no intention of trying to predict on all races. This series, at the risk of being accused of being parochial, is weighted in favour of the Jamaica/USA rivalry.
Men’s Track & Field Predictions
100m – Gold
Jamaica first challenged the USA in this event in 1952, when the legendary Herb McKenley had a blanket finish with Lindy Remigino, finishing second. Herb believed he won. The next real challenge was in 1968 when Lennox “Billy” Miller, running in white instead of the black, green, and gold, split Jim Hines and Charles Green for another silver in Mexico. That “running in white” was the result of a major protest by the team of athletes because Herbert McDonald, a sport administrator, was given the honour of carrying the flag at the Games for Jamaica instead of one of our athletes. I say no more on that at this juncture.
The challenge was maintained in 1972, when the same Lennox Miller finished third in Munich, with the Americans getting the silver medal behind Valery Borzov of the then USSR. This feat by Miller represented the first repeat medal in the 100m at the Olympics. Jamaica featured again in 1976 as Donald Quarrie, who attended both the 1968 and 1972 Olympiads but did not compete due to injury, finally came good with a silver medal as Hasley Crawford of Trinidad and Tobago won and Borzov won the bronze, thus shutting out the Americans.
Jamaica did not hit the podium again until 2008, even though Raymond Stewart made the finals in 1984 and 1988.
After lightning struck in 2008, the reverberations continued until 2016. Unfortunately for the USA, even after the departure of Bolt in 2016, it was Italian Marcel Jacobs who triumphed in 2021 (2020). 2024 is heading for a battle royal.
Noah Lyles has been the most active contestant on the circuit and is the World Champion. Jacobs, as defending champion, has only shown signs of strength in the last two months. The Africans, particularly Omanyala of Kenya and Simbine of South Africa. Fred Kerley and Kenny Bednarek of the USA have also shown themselves to be competitive. Oblique Seville shocked Lyles at the Racers Grand Prix with what was then the fastest time for the year, 9.82. Andre DeGrasse has history on his side, but his times have not been impressive to date.
Kishane Thompson heir to Bolt’s throne?
Then came Kishane Thompson! Seemingly like a bolt (pun not intended) from the blue. Now we are recalling his brief appearance at the 2023 National Championships, when he won his heat in 9.91 but did not return for the semi-finals. This year he went all the way and is now the National Champion with 9.77, which makes him the 9th fastest man in history. The apparent ease with which he won has resulted in him being installed as the favourite.
Zharnel Hughes and Akeem Blake have to be contemplated as well. However, Hughes was injured in the middle of the season and is just starting to compete again.
The ultimate legend, Usain Bolt, always emphasised the need for competitive sharpness. One can question whether Thompson has enough of that and, by contrast, whether Lyles is overexposed. Seville has two 4th place finishes at the highest level. This experience of competing at a high level can be seen as a net positive for Seville or as a sign of his inability to deliver when it really matters, which dogged Asafa Powell throughout his career.
Noah Lyles talks a good game but Seville will triumph
From a consistency perspective, Lyles has the edge. However, based on sheer looks, Thompson seems to be a serious challenger. Seville has shown that he can beat Lyles, and this cannot be ignored. These three, therefore, are my top predictions for podium finishers.
I cannot help but take note of the fact that, as great as the MVP and Stephen Francis have been, they have not yet produced a global male champion. In fact, that is the curiosity surrounding Jamaica’s two most outstanding coaches. Glen Mills has not produced a global female champion. And so, going purely based on instincts, my choice is Seville on the day.
200m, 400m, 800m – No medals
We are entered in this event, but with the National Champion having only just gone below 20 seconds, it is not anticipated that we can make it to the final in this event.
Without the defending 400m World Champion Antonio Watson, Jamaica still managed to have the top three finishers at the National Trials running under 45 seconds. The top contenders, however, have gone below 44 seconds. I suggest that Jamaica is not in contention for a medal in this event.
The mention of the 800m here is purely in due deference to Dr. the Honourable Arthur Wint, who won silver medals in the 1948 and 1952 Olympics. George Kerr carried the mantle for a while, and then there was Alex McDonald, but Jamaica has not medaled at the highest level in this event since then. The truth is, outside of a miracle, Jamaica will not contend and is not expected to feature in the final either.
4x100m relay – Silver
Another historic battleground between the Jamaicans and the USA, but the British and Canadians should not be ruled out as the baton must go around to achieve victory. Bednarek, Kerley, Coleman, and Lyles can challenge any quartet across the globe. So can Blake (Akeem), Seville, Levell, and Thompson. The passing of the baton will be the determining factor, and this is not something that can be the subject of accurate prediction. The sheer experience of the Americans gives them the nod for me.
Long Jump – Gold
For the first time in history, Jamaica will be represented by three men who, on their best day, can contend for a medal. Tajay Gayle has won at the World Championships, Wayne Pinnock has a World Championships silver medal, and Carey McLeod, with a best of 8.40 metres, can challenge for a medal. Miltiadis Tentoglou of Greece is the apparent favourite, and Simon Ehammer of Switzerland is a significant contender.
Based on form as well as the sheer potential of the Jamaicans, I am predicting two medals in this event, with a gold medal on offer via Pinnock.
Triple Jump – Gold
Jamaica has not, in the pre-Covid-19 period, contended at the highest level in this event. There is no history of even qualifying competitors for Triple Jump at this level. Come 2023, and from out of left field comes a youngster who is an absolute prodigy.
Jayden Hibbert, at the tender age of 18, leaves high school and is fully qualified for university in the USA. So he is more than sound intellectually. By now he has broken numerous records, including the World Under-20 record both indoors and outdoors. He won both long jump and triple jump at the CARIFTA Games in 2021.
“With 17.15 m the automatic qualifier, only 18-year-old world leader Jaydon Hibbert was able to muster such a distance; his 17.70 m far outdistanced that requirement.”. This is the report on the 2023 World Championships based on Wikipedia.
Unfortunately, he was not able to jump in the final as he picked up an injury. The winning jump was 17.64 metres. Hibbert’s effort was better than any other but done outside of the official final contest. He is in Paris, and all indications are that he is healthy. He is still very young and not as seasoned in terms of competition at the highest level.
The Cubans have a strong hand in this event with Lázaro Martinez and Cristian Nápoles, and Hugues Fabrice Zango of Burkina Faso is the reigning World Champion. Zango has gone over 18 metres, but the runners-up from the World Championships have not gone to the distances that Hibbert has jumped.
18.0 metres is not a distance jumped on a regular basis, and Hibbert has not ventured there as yet. Bias notwithstanding, his youthfulness and enthusiasm are positives, and he has my vote for victory. I am not anticipating any other Jamaican figuring in this one.
400m Hurdles – Finals
Karsten Warholm of Norway, Rai Benjamin of the USA, and Allison Dos Santos of Brazil have gone places where no other 400m hurdler has gone. The top 17 times in history are shared by these three. Only one other current competitor, Abderrahman Samba of Mauritania, has gone below 47 seconds.
Veteran Jaheel Hyde and Young Turks Malik James-King and Roshawn Clarke are Jamaica’s standard bearers in this event. Of the three, James King and Clarke have gone below 47.5. It is my considered view that these latter two will make it to the final. I am not, however, anticipating a medal in this one.
110m Hurdles – Silver & Bronze
Grant Holloway of the USA has dominated this event for the last five years. He is a three-time World Champion, but he is not the Olympic Champion. Hansle Parchment has been medaling at the highest level since 2012.
Hansle is the defending champion, and he seems to be rounding into form at the right time. The Americans are always powerful in this event, and so are the Jamaicans, with 2024 being no different. Rasheed Broadbell and Orlando Bennett will accompany Hansle to represent Jamaica, and ambitiously, I expect all three to make it to the finals.
Beating Holloway is going to be difficult due to his tremendous start and sheer quality. Parchment, on the other hand, usually takes a bit of time to unfurl his 6’5” frame but then comes on like a freight train towards the end. Broadbell and Bennett are exuding confidence and could surprise.
This analysis does not contemplate being exhaustive, and there is a gut feeling aspect that will always play a role, logic notwithstanding. I suggest that Holloway’s hunger will take him home with Parchment just missing a repeat. Broadbell will be there for the bronze.
Discus – Finals
Longstanding standard bearer Fedrick Dacres did not make it to the Olympics this time around, and that is unusual. His longtime partner Traves Smikle is the de facto leader of the Jamaican pack, with two Young Turks, Roje Stona and Ralford Mullings, in tow. There is a plethora of mostly Europeans, Americans, and Asians contending.
70 metres is considered an indicator of one being in with a real chance. However, it is not unusual for major competitions to be won with a throw of less than that. I do not expect this to be the case. Mykolas Alekna of Lithuania is the highest-ranked contender, and Daniel Stahl of Sweden sits at 4th and is always dangerous.
The Jamaicans have not been getting close to 70 metres with any consistency, but I expect Smikle and Mullings to make it to the final set, but I do not stake any claim for a medal here.
Shot Put – No Medals
Jamaica’s record holder is Rajindra Campbell with a personal best (PB) of 22.16 metres. He sits at number 13 in the rankings and has not been consistently over the 22-metre mark. No miracle is anticipated here, and the Americans are powerful.
Women’s Track & Field Predictions
100m – Silver & Bronze
Arguably the most competitive event in track and field at the Olympics, Jamaica goes in with the doyen of female sprinting, Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce, at the age of 37. The absolute matriarch and a legend in her own right. And she is not there out of respect. She is a genuine contender, not just for a medal but for the pinnacle of the podium.
Then there is Shericka Jackson, a veteran herself and certainly a top contender. The Young Turk here is Tia Clayton, barely out of high school but one who has made the transition from high school dominance to the professional senior ranks a bit faster than her twin sister Tina. The latter was the more dominant in high school, but such are the vagaries of that transition process, which is still to be studied in order to allow for a more scientific approach to the process.
Sitting at the top of the rankings is Sha’Carri Richardson of the USA, and justifiably so based on 2024 occurrences to date. Britain’s Dina Asher-Smith and Daryll Neita, Ivorian Marie-Josée Ta Lou Smith, Poland’s Ewa Swoboda, and St. Lucian Julien Alfred are all genuine contenders, and the list is not exhaustive. Uncertainties as to fitness levels have added to the monumental challenge of picking a winner.
Sha’Carri in top form, favourite to win
Based on form, Sha’Carri has to be the favourite, but that is not what determines matters of this sort. In terms of big occasions, performer Shelly Ann stands supreme. This is one time when gut instincts may very well be the best indicator. I suggest that all three Jamaicans will be in the final and may very well be in the top four, but I find it difficult to go against Richardson. That being the case, I choose the Matriarch and the Young Turk for silver and bronze in that order.
We must pause to remember Elaine Thompson-Herah, the two-time double champion from the last two Olympics, who, due to injury, is not around this time. There is no one in a position to equal this feat of hers, and that is indicative of the awesome nature of her achievement.
200m – Gold
Under “normal” circumstances one could easily pencil in Shericka Jackson and then try to work out the minor placings. The uncertainties as to her real form and the showing of Gabby Thomas of the USA has resulted in contemplations that may not have been there in 2023. The usual suspects Dina Asher-Smith, Julien Alfred, Daryll Neita and Marie-Josée Ta Lou Smith et al are, no doubt, lurking to pounce at the slightest detection of weakness.
This is where Shericka is most dominant and I back her to take victory with Thomas and Asher-Smith for silver and bronze respectively.
400m – Gold
For the first time in decades, Jamaica has a favourite contender for gold in the women’s 400m.
Historically, Marilyn Neufville, Sandie Richards, Grace Jackson, Lorraine Fenton-Graham, Stephanie Ann McPherson, and recently Shericka Williams and Shericka Jackson are some of the names that come to mind as 400m contenders. But never before has there been one so precocious as to have the leading time approaching a world event.
In fact, very few women have gone into the mid-to-low 48+ seconds region. Nickisha Pryce has not only claimed the Jamaican national record but now sits at number 10 on the all-time bests for this much-heralded event.
In the absence of the Bahamian Shaunae Miller-Uibo, Marileidy Paulino of the Dominican Republic has been the dominant 400m runner, notwithstanding Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone of the USA, who, with the second fastest time for the year, has opted to concentrate on the 400m hurdles and the 4x400m relay. The same can be said of Femke Bol of the Netherlands, the indoor record holder for 400m.
I am definitely going out on the limb for Pryce in this one. I was worried about her workload on the USA NCAA circuit, but I am under the impression that she is being managed astutely, and so I say gold.
I expect Stacy Ann Williams to make the final but not to medal.
The relay should be interesting. The Americans are somewhat competitive, but it seems Paulino and Perry have separated themselves. Natalia Kaczmarek of Poland, Sada Williams of Barbados, Rhasidat Adeleke of Ireland, and Lieke Klaver of the Netherlands are some who will contend, and in athletics upsets are just a step away.
800m – Finals
Athing Mu’s fall in the US Trials has taken out a massive contender in an already stacked field. Mary Moraa of Kenya and Keely Hodgkinson of Great Britain are the two left from the World Championship podium, and then there is Alemu of Ethiopia and Akins of the USA, all serious contenders.
Natoya Goule-Toppin recently ran an impressive 1:56.83 in London. Unfortunately, it only got her to 4th position. This three-time Olympian has been a stalwart for Jamaica in this event but has not yet climbed onto the podium at a world event.
This time around, it will be as difficult as all the other times. I expect her to make the final, but I do not envisage a medal.
100m Hurdles – Silver & Bronze
Jamaica has quite a record of performance in this event, but in the Olympics, the best performance has been by the diminutive Megan Tapper with a bronze at the Tokyo Games held in 2021 due to COVID-19. This is a bit of a shocker, as Brigitte Foster-Hylton has struck gold at the World Championships, as has Danielle Williams.
Megan did not make it this time, but Jamaica will be well represented by Ackera Nugent, Danielle Williams, and Janeek Brown. All three American qualifiers have gone under 12.4 seconds, with Masai Russell having the world leading time of 12.25. Then there are Tobi Amusan of Nigeria, Jasmine Camacho Quinn of Puerto Rico, and Devynne Charlton of the Bahamas.
Jamaica’s two strong points are that Nugent has hit top form at the right time and Danielle Williams is a seasoned fighter with all the grit required for times like these. All things considered, I pick Amusan for gold and Nugent for silver. The battle for the bronze will rage, and I suggest that Williams will prevail.
400m Hurdles – Bronze
Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone seems to have taken this event as her personal possession in recent years, and even though Femke Bol has threatened somewhat from a distance, it will be hard for others to challenge these two and for anyone to really extend McLaughlin-Levrone.
Jamaica’s Rushell Clayton has established herself as a fighter, and I am suggesting that she will take the bronze. Anna Cockrel and Jasmine Jones of the USA have both gone under 53 seconds, but I believe Clayton will prevail.
4x100m Relay – Gold
The calibre of the Jamaican sprint relay team is unmatched. There is no denying the quality of the USA in the relays, and the British are also most worthy of consideration. However, the strength, depth, and experience of the likely Jamaican quartet of Tia Clayton Shericka Jackson, Natasha Morrison, and Queen Shelly Ann will take them to the top of the podium as an appropriate send-off for the Queen Mother.
4x400m Relay – Gold
The Americans have taken control of this event for the most part over the years. Of course there have been upsets, but since the 2008 Games, the USA has prevailed consistently. Interestingly, the top three finishers in the 400m at the USA Trials all ran under 50 seconds, while in the case of Jamaica, no one went under 50 seconds.
This kind of logic cannot be used as the only determining indicator of victory. What Nickisha Pryce has done since the trials is enough of an indicator of how things can change. I am predicting gold for Jamaica in this event as Pryce, I expect, will have an American to chase and will repeat the feat of Novelene Williams-Mills in the 2015 World Championships.
Triple Jump – Gold
Shanieka Ricketts has been carrying the triple jump flag for Jamaica along with Kimberly Williams for close to ten years, and she, in particular, has carried it with distinction.
Venezuelan Yulimar Rojas Rodriguez, the perennial favourite in this event, is not able to defend her title due to injury. In her absence, Leyanis Pérez Hernández of Cuba and Ricketts could very well be frontrunners for the title. Dominican Thea Lafond is also in with a chance.
I am backing the battle-hardened Ricketts to prevail.
Other Field Events
Mixed Relays
Jamaica will contest the mixed relay, and I believe that the runners will give an excellent account of themselves. Trying to predict the outcome of this event is very difficult, as assessing the competitors is a challenging exercise as the event is not regularly contested.
Shot put
Danniel Thomas-Dodd has done well in shot put through the years, but her failure to consistently throw over 20 metres suggests that she will not contend for a medal.
1500 m
Jamaica will be represented in the 1500m women, but here again I do not anticipate Aisha Praught Leer being able to make it to the final, more so in light of her running with a torn meniscus.
Highest Medal Haul Ever?
The upshot of all these prognostications suggests that Jamaica will end up with its highest medal haul ever with 18, comprising 8 gold, 4 silver, and 6 bronze to finish 2nd or at least 3rd place on the track and field medal table.
Historically, this can be described as questionable. However, I stand by the methodology and hope for the realisation of our best performance to date. The strength in the field is the real game changer, and we await the outcomes.
Let the games begin!
